J
Joerg
- Jan 1, 1970
- 0
Don said:Hi Joerg,
Don Y wrote:
[...]
The advantage with the simple irrigation controller is that if it croaks
while I am gone I can simply tell my wife where to get a new one and she
can install it. With a problem somewhere in the LAN that would be a real
challenge.
What would she do if the hot water heater developed a leak?
I.e., you *fix* things that you rely on in a timely manner.
She would have a new one installed. With a homebrew LAN that is kind of
impossible.
Note I can always pull the wires off *my* irrigation controller
and attach them to a storebought unit! There's nothing special about
the irrigation valves...
In our case you just buy the same controller and transfer them over
verbatim. Easy. You can even have a pre-programmed unit sitting on the
shelf as a spare.
And you have only the capabilities that non-interconnected devices
have. If that works for you, great! You may find that folks with
disabilities (perhaps yourself, someday) find having to conform to
the requirements imposed by some sighted, nondeaf, mobile, agile,
young designer poses a bit of a challenge.
[I have several friends with partial paralysis from strokes;
Parkinson's; ALS; missing limbs; deaf; blind or legally blind;
etc. The list gets *longer* as I get older! Ever watch someone
with Parkinsonian tremor use a mouse? "Just click on the red
box in the upper left corner..." Or, someone in a wheelchair
try to navigate to the garage to close the door before retiring?
Or someone blind wondering if they've turned off the lights
in the house before retiring? Along with ensuring the stovetop
is off?]
That would be the point where I'd really start simplifying my life,
getting a smaller house, maybe even consider a 55+ community. But as
long as one spouse is ok it may not be an issue, as long as it doesn't
cause undue overload stress level in the healthier spouse.
Unfortunately, many folks don't have a choice. Or, don't want to
give up their independence -- "yet". Our ALS friend lives by herself.
Despite the fact that she can no longer *speak*. We have friends
where one spouse is disabled -- and the other barely *able* (i.e.,
old). Try telling them "you should move into..." and its like
talking to a brick wall!
[I wonder what I will be like when/if that time comes?]
We never know. But it is beneficial to prepare oneself. Because of our
volunteer activities we know most of the places in our area. It's good
to mentally prepare. Of course that's no guarantee, I know people who in
their younger years were perfectly willing to go into assisted living
some day and then when the time really came fought it tooth and nail.
If, instead, they can avail themselves of appliances and other
living means that allow them to continue to live the lifestyle
they *choose*... <shrug>
E.g., when our ALS friend is in bed, she's there until the caregiver
gets her up in the morning! If someone comes to the front door,
she can't (physically) let them in. If she left the TV on in the
living room, it's going to *stay* on all night. If she worries
that she *might* not have turned off the stove, she won't know
until someone checks it in the morning (unless the house catches
fire before then!)
None of these things are difficult to provide. They just *haven't*
been.
That's the problem. And will be for a long time to come.
If appealing to the toy desire of normal users lets quantities
increase so they become affordable for the folks who *need*
them (instead of just WANTING them)...
Happens all the time! Early adopters always pay through the nose!
I'm hoping that circumventing the need for "big players" will let
"tinkerers" create a workable system -- even if a big player comes
in after the fact and tries to hijack the idea. (who cares as long
as the devices are available!)
It only tends to happen for gizmos in a "must have" category. HA isn't
cool enough, therefore it has to be reasonably price to even create a
market.
One problem with time-of-use tariffs has been the relative inability
of consumers to adjust their energy loads with any level of
convenience. I.e., little more than "don't turn on the lights
during the day!".
The real reason is that the utilities have screwed up the smart grid.
The user has no feedback what he is currently using, no immediate
feedback about market pricing, nada, zilch.
But there is nothing for the user to *do* with that information!
How does he *know* what loads to shed to reap a given level of reward?
Does he even know *where* his power is being consumed? Or, when?
If he could look at a wall display and see it showing KW/Hr (i.e.,
"rate"), how could he determine *what* was contributing to that
figure? Run around turning things on and off and then run back to
see what the display indicates?
This is exactly what home automation is for. Say someone starts loading
the dryer. The computer in there senses the door being opened, then
responds "Hey, a kWh is 45c right now, sure you want to do this?
Yesterday it was down to 16c by 7:30pm". Or it could just suggest to
impulse-tumble the load until the prices drop, then step on it and
notify you on the display panels. You can hit [YES] or [NO].
Its easier than that! You do the things that automation can't
(i.e. load the washer). Let the automation decide when to actually
*wash* the clothes. Let it notify you when you are needed to
move the clothes into the dryer, etc.
But there is nothing available at Home Depot or Lowe's to make that
happen. Consequently it's not happening.
Of course, there are countless "rules" as to what it should do
and when. E.g., growing up, the hot water heater was undersized
(oil fired). So, you didn't take a shower when someone was
doing laundry!
With automation, you can turn that on its head to favor the user
over the "appliance" -- *stop* the laundry cycle when someone
wants to use the shower (or, just delay when you would start the
cycle if you know folks will be taking showers, soon)
Well, yeah, those things we tend to figure out the old-fashioned way by
turning stuff on and off. For example, we set the sprinklers to come on
and be through before we take our morning showers.
You can save energy and gain convenience with automation. So,
use that as the "draw" and hope that others (utilities, regulators,
etc.) get on the bandwagon after-the-fact.
Not going to work. There is no consumer payback without intelligent TOU
tariffs. So consumers won't buy.
The problem has been that automation involves too many DIFFERENT
aspects of a home (we have not talked about businesses!). So,
its unlikely that manufacturer A will have its hands in LOTS of
these areas in order to pitch a unified, consistent framework
for "devices".
I.e., the solution has to come from outside those industries.
Put something in place. *Hope* people embrace it ("Hey, it
exists, its free, and its better than nothing!") and then
hope vendors follow.
It requires the utilities or regulators to get it. And they don't, yet.
See some of my URLs. ...
That's mostly alarm systems. Not very useful for real HA.
... What's sorely missing is the smarts (algorithms)
to tie things together. "Control your home from your smartphone!"
"OK, besides being 1970 technology, what does that *do* for me that
I can't do WITHOUT the smartphone??" (i.e., why can't *you* decide
when to lower the thermostat?)
First there needs to be the hardware, the devices that actually control
stuff. They ain't there.
They want it all. They forget that *I* have to gain something
before I am willing to GIVE something!
E.g., we have looked into PV solar (too expensive given our ages).
Going that route, you "sell back" surplus electricity (at a reduced
price!) to the utility. ...
And therein lies the problem. Why is it that when we strain ourselves to
be good and feed 8kW back at times of super-high need that the spot
market guys get 30-40c/kWh and we get 4c? That's wrong, and is the
reason why we have no solar at all. Now it's too late, on account of a
new metal roof with a batten system.
... Heck, why have *any* surplus? Charge
batteries when you have power to spare. Use the batteries to
power *some* of your load in the off hours (instead of buying back
the electricity that you just sold the utility a few hours ago
AT A HIGHER PRICE -- "distribution costs")
Super expensive, not going to be economical. Friends had that in Mexico
and only because there was no electricity. You don't want to know what a
fully burdended kWh cost them.
I don't see it that way. For businesses, there is a value decision
involved. For consumers, I still think there is a lot of "toy"
factor. "Have you seen the Jones' house? It practically wipes
your ass for you!"
For you and me, maybe (less so for me, I want value in it). But the vast
majority will not buy unless there is some payback.
My other half has one "for emergencies". $100/year (I believe there
are cheaper alternatives but she needed something that had widespread
coverage as she was making annual drives up through some of the
lesser populated/developed portions of the state, into Utah, etc.
so that restricted her choices)
She has *once* used it for an emergency. The other times have been
"I'm at Trader Joe's. Do you want anything?"
<shrug> At $100, it's a bargain for piece of mind... (also pays
for itself when she *is* on those extended trips and would have to
resort to a payphone or motel phone to call home)
When you get up there in age I'd consider getting one for yourself as
well. All it takes is going on a jog and suddenly you feel the ticker
skipping some beats.
EVERYONE wants to be in the services business! I suspect we will
see "subsidized appliances" in the future -- once they figure out
how to get those appliances to snitch on your usage patterns!
Then, sell that information to vendors who can pitch items to
you *in* your home!
(Like: "Free phone with 2 year contract...")
Smart phones have the coolness factor. "Mine has a screen 0.500" bigger
than yours" or "Mine can do LTE". HA (mostly) doesn't have this
coolness, it needs to create value on its own merits.
But it isn't! Folks are willing to pay for security monitoring
services (surveillance), "Help, I've fallen and I can't get up",
etc. It's a wonder anyone has disposable income given all the
vendors trying to nickel and dime them to death! :<
They only do that if they really have no other choice. Or if the kids
force them to and/or pay the bills for it. We are talking home
automation though.
(Most "services" are articifial. Why do I need to pay someone
$2/day so I can control SOME of my appliances from my iPhone?
Why can't my phone contact my home directly -- instead of
going THROUGH your "service")
Exactly. I don't want to be tied to someone's service for this. Because
you know how it goes:
"We have some wonderful news! We have added these valuable features ...
yada, yada, yada ..."
None of which you really need, or let alone asked for. In the fine print
it says "Best of all, you get all this for a low new price of
$2.79/day". Seriously, I had exactly such an attempt by my web hoster
recently. I put an immediate stopperoo on that but I bet 90+ percent of
customers didn't and now wonder why their bill shot up.
The same sort of people who already spend $160/month! Companies
don't care about you or me. There are plenty of other folks eager
to throw money at them!
I doubt they would spend an additional $34/mo for that. For umpteen
additional sports channels, sure. For HA? Nope.
They've embraced Arduino in the hope that folks will design
Arduino based gizmos... that they can eventually talk to.
That's nerd stuff, will never reach the masses.
Google wants to *live* in your pants (pocket)!
Not in mine. I don't even use them as a search engine.
Sure. My point was there are folks who are willing to pay that
price for a flimsy little connector. What are they willing to
pay for the rest of the enchilada?
Not much. They will prefer to spend that money on a fun park trip,
dinner, movies, a humongous gas barbecue they use exactly once, or some
other cool stuff they can brag about in front of their friends.
Bummer. Shit Happens.
Yeah, pain all day, dentist on vacation for a week. But my wife made an
excellent Zucchini soup. Someties us guys forget how much work that is,
a lot more than if I had barbecued the meat, sausages, bread and jalapenos.