Repair Qs 50 Years from Now

Considering how far electronics has come in just the past 50 years, one
wonders what sort of repair questions technicians of the future will face.
Stuff that's as common as beer cans now may be extinct just a few decades
down the road. Repair techniques we now take for granted may not work on
tomorrow's equipment. Think about it; we may have to deal with
bioelectronics, teletransportation equipment, tech support between planets.

Schematics may become so large as to be unprintable on paper, or even stored
on even one mass-storage device.

The vast majority of electronic devices may be impossible to take apart,
much less repair. (And some manufacturers may not even bother to print part
numbers on some components as a result.)

Microscopes will become absolutely necessary, as will lasers for
spot-welding soldering.

Will tomorrow's matter-teleportation devices come with any warranties?
Today's software doesn't.

In the early 1960s, _Mad_ magazine printed a funny article called "Future
Complaints." It illustrated the potential problems that people in the
future would have to deal with. Interestingly, some of these gags have
indeed not only come to pass, but become obsolete: a customer in a
super-fast photoprocessing store was angrily complaining to the helpless
clerk, "What do you mean, 'They're not in yet'? I brought them in over an
hour ago!" But the funniest one was still this: "Geez, can't they do
something to speed up these long lines at the post office?"

So use your imagination: What will technology be like in 50 years, what will
break down, and how will we fix it? What tools will we need? We
technicians may find ourselves having to repair clothing that comes with
data-transmission capability; having to remotely repair I.D. chips beneath
human skin that have stopped working; repairing or reconditioning biomedical
devices after they've been retrieved from people who no longer have need of
them. What else?

Whatever we build, will eventually break. You want your jet pack shutting
off at 1,000 feet?

 

Yep! But only if my roof landing zone is sufficiently close.

 

Problem is, there will be no one interested in repairing the items at the
rates the manufacturers will be willing to pay. That is becoming a serious
issue currently resulting in the fact there are extremely few technician
candidates interested in going into the service related market for Consumer
Related Electronic Devices. Maybe by then all the items will be totally
recyclable, so when the item fails you just take it to the local beam up
centre and return it for a new one. Of course, there will still be us guys
who are trying to capture radio signals with a piece of coal, 2 sharp razor
blades, and a good set or high impedance headphones. Eh!! IMHO Cheers

 

Most things will be "throw-away". If it is an expensiive item, there
will be circuit board or module swapping.

With the advent of increased density in using inbeded component
design, and very high density SMD circuit construction, there will be
no possibility of component level service at any practicle means.

I was at a lecture about the future of how electroncs will go. They
are looking at everything to be totaly inbeded and manufactured as
sealed modules. Consumer level devices will be manufactured as a
single self contained module. During warranty, the manufacture will
give a full exchange. After that, the unit is disposed.

As devices become very small and higher in density, the manufacture
cost will drop. This will be passed on to the consumer. In the future,
most electronic devices will be even lower in price.

If you look at computer monitors and TV sets, about 40 years ago the
cheapest TV set was over a month's pay for a working man. Today, you
can buy a TV for much less value and have a much higher performance.
Chances are that it will reliably run for at least 4 to 6 years. At 40
years ago, if a tube type TV ran more than 3 years without service, it
was unusual.

In the near future, Independent TV service centers will probably be
almost non existant. It will be probably impossible to indepently
service the next generations of TV's to come out.

If you look at the labour and parts cost to service most things today,
it is usualy of better value to replace it.

Electronics service people should be taking a hard look at what they
are doing, and make a strong consideration for proper planning.



Jerry G.
---------

 

Jerry, that is a very good point.

I now work for two ASCs, and the idea is to share resources. I am not
really into working for ISCs anymore. But still I have seen sets under
a year old. I know where we are heading. And I know why. Intergrated
micros and jungle ICs reduce the complexity or the circuit board,
which they promptly miniturize a bit more and the process continues.

Everyone, I am a forward thinker, and the OP's question was about
fifty years from now. I will now render my answer, with detail,
because that's the way I am. This could happen in way less than fifty
years. The technology exists now for the most part, but this is so
data processing intensive that I don't think they can accomplish it
today.

In the future they will have a 3D flat screen TV. You know those
mirrors with the lights that look like they go off into infinity ? It
has one half silvered mirror and one full silvered mirror. It tricks
your depth perception. It looks like there is a hole in the wall
behind it and like a mirrored tunnel lined with lights.

By using LCD panels that are partially reflective, and sandwiching a
bunch of them together, even interpreting the data will be a task, but
by careful selection of what is sent to each panel they can give the
illusion of 3D. Also, some outgrowth of DLP technology might be used
to control that reflectivity. Between the two, they will eventually
succeed in doing this, and after that, with a wide viewing angle. This
will be dealing with layers possibly closer together than the
wavelength of light. The thickness of the unit will probably be only a
few inches, but the apparent depth can be much greater as they can
bounce the light around maybe hundreds of thousands of times.

I also belive that eventually someone will eliminate speakers as we
know them. They will abandon the idea of a voice coil motor, even
current other technologies such as electrostatic and piezoelectric.
With the use of some type of field, they will convert the electricity
directly to air movement, without limitations due to cone size or
mass.

Of course then again there might be no technology fifty years from now
if they don't stop starting these wars and shit.

JURB

 

All equipment in the future will be self repairing, there wont be any
need for technicians apart from those employed to keep the replicators
working.





Ron(UK)

 

I was reading some articles, and have seen some documentation about how TV
will be an HD 3D projected image in the air. It will be like what we see in
the science fiction movies. There is a lot of research going on to develop
this type of technology. This way, TV will be viewed without any surface to
support reflected light. Images will look true and 3D. This should be a
verify good illusion when they can get it to work.

--

Jerry G.
======


Jerry, that is a very good point.

I now work for two ASCs, and the idea is to share resources. I am not
really into working for ISCs anymore. But still I have seen sets under
a year old. I know where we are heading. And I know why. Intergrated
micros and jungle ICs reduce the complexity or the circuit board,
which they promptly miniturize a bit more and the process continues.

Everyone, I am a forward thinker, and the OP's question was about
fifty years from now. I will now render my answer, with detail,
because that's the way I am. This could happen in way less than fifty
years. The technology exists now for the most part, but this is so
data processing intensive that I don't think they can accomplish it
today.

In the future they will have a 3D flat screen TV. You know those
mirrors with the lights that look like they go off into infinity ? It
has one half silvered mirror and one full silvered mirror. It tricks
your depth perception. It looks like there is a hole in the wall
behind it and like a mirrored tunnel lined with lights.

By using LCD panels that are partially reflective, and sandwiching a
bunch of them together, even interpreting the data will be a task, but
by careful selection of what is sent to each panel they can give the
illusion of 3D. Also, some outgrowth of DLP technology might be used
to control that reflectivity. Between the two, they will eventually
succeed in doing this, and after that, with a wide viewing angle. This
will be dealing with layers possibly closer together than the
wavelength of light. The thickness of the unit will probably be only a
few inches, but the apparent depth can be much greater as they can
bounce the light around maybe hundreds of thousands of times.

I also belive that eventually someone will eliminate speakers as we
know them. They will abandon the idea of a voice coil motor, even
current other technologies such as electrostatic and piezoelectric.
With the use of some type of field, they will convert the electricity
directly to air movement, without limitations due to cone size or
mass.

Of course then again there might be no technology fifty years from now
if they don't stop starting these wars and shit.

JURB

 

The highest tech things to worry about may be a stone hammer and a bow and
arrow required for defense and your next meal. Everything we recognize
today as technology was wiped out in the final war of 2029.

Have a nice day,
Lee Richardson
Mech-Tech
Evansville, Indiana

 

Call me a cynic, too. The post-apocalyptic movies have an eerily true
prophetic ring to them. I'm not ready to run off and join a survivalist
community, but if I was thirty years younger I might.

 

Hi!

Sometimes the best answer to what the future holds is found by looking at
the past. Look at the number of people who still collect, restore and use
vintage items of every type--cars, radios, household appliances. It may take
some ingenuity, but repairs on these items are still possible. Many parts
are still easily available and those which are not can usually be made or
substituted.

I have a Zenith 6S52 console radio from 1936. I doubt that anyone in that
time imagined that this radio would still exist or be repairable...71 years
later.

Granted, today's electronics are more complex and few of them come with any
service literature as this old radio did. However, I'm sure that at the
time, the radio and its internal workings represented a mystery to the
people who owned it... Oh, and if you think the electronics of today are
complex and poorly documented...

William

 

That's when Internet became self-aware.

- Franc Zabkar