Dan Bloomquist said:
Those PEM auto prototypes are running $80k+ at production levels. If we
can't afford them...
True, but it still doesn't turn engineering into economics.
If you only get 5% of the heating value of coal to the wheels of a car,
what does that fuel cost? What infrastructure? It does all count. If it
were not about cost, we could cover a little spec of desert with solar
thermal and stop using coal for electricity.
Who said anything about using coal?
Even so, assuming that your statement and figures are right (they look
right), they don't indicate that engineering and economics are the same
thing.
Don's copy and paste library is a bit limited.
I've been an advocate of methane powered SOFC, with a possible bottom
cycle for the heat, for years. But we would have to stop wasting methane
on peakers and get Canada to expand production.
Eat more beans
Seriously, though, if we run out of the methane that's in the ground and
the stuff that's stuck in this methane ice stuff at the bottom of the
ocean, we can make our own by digesting biomass. Even if no cheap way
of digesting boimass on a large scale is developed, it is still
worthwhile to for some people (hobby farmers, homesteaders, people with
kudzu or water hyassin infestations) to make methane on a small scale
and use it to power their cars and homes.
We need a methane fuel cell that we can buy for a reasonable price.
After a few years, people will be buying them from the junkyards and
using them at home.
There are no currently viable bio sources. Angiosperms and Gymnosperms
don't grow rapidly enough to be meaningful. Cultivated algae could work
in principle. But if it costs like solar...
Farmers currently dump manure into a big pond and let it rot there.
There is currently some work on digesting that stuff. It isn't going to
solve the energy crisis, but it'll turn a liability into an asset for
those people.
I don't think 2 to 3 times the efficiency is just 'some'. So many of our
miles are just to get to work and back, short trips. Hell, if those
commuter miles where done in civics and with car pooling, it would have
a dramatic effect on our consumption.
We are already living with vehicles that are a whole lot less efficient
than an EV. We're doing that because EVs cost more (higher capital
costs), and EVs have a lousy range and take a long time to refuel.
If I can someday buy a 2Kw SOFC unit for around a grand, I'd do it
without thinking because I've already run the numbers. If you bottom
SOFC into home heating, you are getting 60% high grade electrical energy
and pushing 97% overall efficiency.
If you are off the grid, you will likely do what most folks I know off
the grid do. Go on an electrical energy diet while on the batteries. Use
a generator for short periods of heavy load. Use PV to supplement the
charge on your batteries. And you go on that diet because PV/batteries
means your electricity runs around $.35-$.45/kwh if you figure a twenty
year lifetime on the equipment.
We are already on an energy diet. We replaced almost all of our
incandescant lights with compact fluorescents. Still, it's not as
extreme as if we had to deal with costly photovoltaics. Even with the
low-cost photovoltaics or a methane fuel cell, I would be changing the
entire lighting system of the house over to DC-powered fluorescents,
LEDs, or electroluminescent panels. The microwave would either be
replaced with a DC model, or I would get one of those inverter
microwaves and modify the innards a bit. I would modify the computer
power supplies to run straight from the batteries. I would modify all
of my power tools that already use a DC motor, and probably grit my
teeth and use a sine wave inverter for the ones that have induction
motors. I would have to replace the ballast in the mercury lights (not
that I use them much). The furnace and pellet stove would probably no
longer be necessary.
But it wouldn't necessarily be for the money. We only spend eighty
bucks a month on electricity right now, so paying off a system that
costs more than a couple grand is going to take a few years.
Inverters are cheap and efficient. With CFs you don't have to live in
the dark. I've lived off grid and found kerosene lamps pleasant.
We used to use them at our grandparents' cottage. They are nice for
getting ready for bed, but I don't think I could read with one right
now. Mantle lanterns are every bit as bright as incandescants, though.
They're every bit as hot, too -- not too nice in the summer, but great
in the winter.
Most of mine are CF, it is just silly to buy incandescence. $12 an eight
pack at Costco. And, modern CFs don't have a problem with the cold, they
just start a little slower.
I never tried them outside.
Check the efficiency of the system first. Remember that your electricity
is precious. Batteries may be the way to go.
Just as a SWAG, a well designed water wheel should be able to hit the
low nineties. A pump should be able to hit a similar range. The motor
and generator can similarly work up in the 90s. The problem is, you
have four steps. .90 X .90 X .90 X .90 = .6561. 65% is OK for some
purposes -- like if the PV panels are cheap.
Even if you have to put in hundreds of miles of super conduction
transmission, pumped storage would win hands down because of the loss
and capital expenditures of hydrogen.
If you're talking about large-scale production, and getting the greenies
to stay off your back, you're talking about a nuke plant someplace
NIMBY -- maybe on some island somewhere. How do we then get the power
to the people? Hydrogen is one way. Superconducting cables under the
sea is another.
I'm not holding my breath.
If you're talking small-scale, then the conditions change a bit. To
make it worthwhile, you need a use for the hydrogen (like a car or
tractor), a cheap power source (geothermal, hydroelectric, magical
low-cost PV panels), and expensive alternatives.
It is all about the numbers. If they don't add up, they don't add up.
Best, Dan.
P.S. Get a good newsreader if you plan to spend any time on usenet.
Outlook makes a mess of the threads. I like Netscape well enough.
I have Mozilla, but I haven't set it up for usenet yet. The thing likes
to shut itself down at the most inopportune times, so I haven't totally
weaned myself off of OE yet.
Ray
