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Oil prices climb to $101.11 a barrel...

Discussion in 'Electronic Repair' started by Jim Thompson, Feb 27, 2008.

  1. Bill Bowden

    Bill Bowden Guest

    Actually, I walk most everywhere I have to go. I used to ride a
    bicycle to work about a mile away and I rode busses to school, but it
    took over an hour to get there. And I rode busses for about 3 months
    when my van broke down while I was shopping for a new truck. Also rode
    a motorcycle for a couple years when I was younger and car insurance
    was expensive. Nowadays, I drive about 5000 miles a year on two oil
    changes.

    -Bill
     
  2. They are really difficult to tell apart by the content alone.
     
  3. James Arthur

    James Arthur Guest


    Thanks for the link. I'm skeptical, for the reasons mentioned. This
    quote also raises my eyebrows:

    "In the tests to date, one ton of seaweed has been processed per
    day, allowing the collection
    of 20 kiloliters of methane gas. In order to boost efficiency, this
    is blended with natural gas
    and converted into 10 kilowatts of electricity per hour."

    How much natural gas is added? What's the blend?

    If we take the entire 10kWhr as due to the seaweed, that's $1.40 worth
    of electricity per ton. Seems like a pretty low yield, and one
    wonders whether more than that was spent processing the stuff.
    Grinding up, pumping, collecting...

    Alas, there are no easy answers.

    Cheers,
    James
     
  4. Bill Bowden

    Bill Bowden Guest

    Not sure if these numbers are right, but from this website it looks
    like giant kelp is worth 5K to 8K BTU per pound, or maybe 2KwH which
    would be 28 cents. So, a ton of seeweed would be worth 2000 * 0.28 =
    $560 ???

    http://www.osti.gov/energycitations/product.biblio.jsp?osti_id=6868993

    "Examples of biomass that may prove to be optimum crops include land
    crops of Sudangrass, napiergrass, sorghum, sugarcane, and the
    unicellular algae Chlorella and Scenedesmus, and seawater crops of
    Macrocystis pyrifera (giant kelp).^Several of these crops could yield
    20 to 30 tons of dry organic matter/acre/y, some others up to 60 tons/
    acre/y.^These crops are estimated to range in fuel value from 5000 to
    8000 Btu/dry lb "

    -Bill
     
  5. JosephKK

    JosephKK Guest

    You have not talked with a sufficient quantity of motorcyclists. Over
    time i have rode units giving anywhere from 22 mpg to 85 mpg. My
    current ride gives about 32 to 35 mpg commuting, but it is overpowered
    and very quick and fun to ride. (110 HP on 800 Lbs curb, full tank.)
     
  6. JosephKK

    JosephKK Guest

    But those prices are not the news with which you can manipulate the sheeple.
     
  7. JosephKK

    JosephKK Guest

    Is little baby upset that her US dollars do not buy the same amount of
    HK trash that they used to. Poseur. Impostor.
     
  8. JosephKK

    JosephKK Guest

    Oh look, the impostor child lies again.
     
  9. Joe Kappus

    Joe Kappus Guest

    I drive a Jetta TDI, it gets over 50mpg on average driving. Since it
    runs diesel and prices have been so absurd, I have been in the process of
    building a small biodiesel refinery. It's a pretty simple solution and
    as I'm calculating it, parts should pay for themselves in about 6 months,
    after which I should be able to produce BD well under $2.00/gal easily.

    I live in the US (go figure) where really only two manufacturers produce
    cars using this technology (no domestic producers). The country has made
    serious mistakes on their alternative fuel planning:

    1. For instance, tax credits are given to those who drive hybrid cars
    WHICH still burn gas (or at best 85% ethanol), and are hardly as
    efficient on highways as their diesel competitors (which can run 100%
    biodiesel). No tax credits are given to those who drive TDI's which are
    more efficient outside of cities and can run on pure biodiesel.

    2. Biodiesel is shown to produce cleaner emissions, with the exception of
    more NOx production (which by the way can be controlled due to the lack
    of sulfur in BD). Unlike ULSD diesel, BD protects the engine better. It
    also benefits farmers in the country and slows the the bleed that
    continues (and will continue) in the US economy due to its reliance on
    foreign exports. The only real downside with BD is that it does not have
    a high tolerance for extreme cold, but most of the country could still be
    shifted to it (the rest could have smaller amounts blended in).

    3. Ethanol on the other hand has been shown to have a short shelf life,
    is extremely corrosive to many materials, and has poor efficiency. And
    yet the government mandates it get added to fuel to decrease efficiency
    some more and increase the demand for imports.

    4. The EPA has made it nearly impossible to produce diesel engined cars
    in the US, rather then trying to mandate a shift to BD blends and
    encouraging the production of more efficient cars, it continues to block
    them out of the market citing emissions. Consider if a diesel car puts
    out 20% more emissions, but gets nearly 40% more fuel efficiency, isn't
    there actually a net loss of 20% emissions. No, the EPA has not planned
    a shift to an alternative fuel which works, it still is promoting
    ethanol, of which not much good is coming of it.

    The net fact remains, aside from some mass transport vehicles and
    fortunate rural areas in the west, most of the US relies solely on
    petroleum imports, and with current government policy, that's not about
    to change.

    Joe
     
  10. MooseFET

    MooseFET Guest

    For a great many drivers highway milage doesn't matter. Stop and go
    driving milage matters a lot for them since that is how the car is
    operated nearly 100% of the time.

    For many people a plugin hybrid would be the best answer.

    You can control NOx in with sulfur in the fuel. It isn't easy and it
    isn't cheap.
    As soon as you start planting crops just to make biodiesel, its
    advantage is lost. Biodiesel from waste products adds value to the
    economy. Biodiesel from crops doesn't because it is all from seed
    oils which takes a lot of energy inputs to make.

    Biodiesel also attacks many materials.
     
  11. MooseFET

    MooseFET Guest

    The oil within a vertically integrated company is worth as much as the
    price on the spot market because they have the option of refining it
    or selling it raw. The spot market is a good but nervous indicator of
    the price of oil. The long term contracts will all end some day and a
    new contract be written at the new higher price. The trend is
    smoothened by that effect but the average rate of increase is not
    reduced.
     
  12. The oil within a vertically integrated company is worth what it can be
    sold for. Introducing large stocks into the open market will reduce
    the spot price.

    Long term contracts are set at a price point where both the buyer and
    seller think they will make money over the term of the contract.
     
  13. MooseFET

    MooseFET Guest

    I don't think it really would or at least not by very much. If a
    vertically integrated company sells its crude oil into the market, it
    won't be refining it into finished products and selling those. Others
    will be making that finished product from the crude oil instead. The
    net effect won't be anything like putting new oil from a well onto the
    market.

    Yes and those predictions are based on the conditions at the time the
    contract is made. The next batch of contracts will be written in a
    very different environment.
     
  14. Forest destruction is a one-time event for a given area. Having the
    land replace petroleum consumption with biomass burning will be replacement
    of ongoing carbon desequestration with neutral carbon impact.
    Where do you get that? A steady-state forest has zero carbon impact
    both locally and globally - the biomass content in a natural forest is not
    steadily increasing long term, but constant on a long term. Cropland
    sequesters carbon locally and if the crop is eaten, burned, decomposed or
    any combination of these, has zero carbon impact globally.
    That is a separate problem, to be solved by growing sustainable crops or
    growing crops where they can be sustained.

    The USA has a fair amount of farmland that could not be sustained until
    crop rotation including legumes was implemented.
    What about the schemes that produce more energy than consumed? They do
    exist and are used!
    Impact on food prices is a remaining argument to consider. Meanwhile,
    corn is now $5.21-$5.28 a bushel, 9.3 to 9.4 cents per pound.

    With petroleum costing about 30 cents per pound and having much more
    energy per unit weight than corn probably by a factor of more than 3.2 or
    so, I would go along with arguments against government mandates to get
    corn to get used that way unless there is a benefit, such a likelihood
    that biofuel ethanol will be cheaper (even per unit energy) than petroleum
    in the foreseeable future.

    - Don Klipstein ()
     
  15. Joe Kappus

    Joe Kappus Guest

    People who live in cities will benefit. But why have a car in the first
    place if you live in a major city? Why not use mass transit? I can tell
    you most of my driving is not constant stop and go, and I still live in
    the most densely populated state.
    Yeah, which is why the government went hellbent on mandating ULSD so
    cheaper systems could be implemented.
    It keeps the money in the country and benefits farmers, the negative side
    is it increases some crop prices. I don't see how planting more crops
    for biodiesel spells a loss, I think if anything it would create a new
    industry in the US. The country has plenty of farmland, it might even be
    able to export if it can build the facilities.
    True about that, I forgot it myself :p
     
  16. No mistake here ;-0
    Exactly - Governments are not about change, but about preventing any!
    Governments are society's parasites adopted perfectly to the prevailing
    system so change is very risky to them because it creates a window of
    opportunity for a *different* set of leeches.

    I.O.W: Any energy scheme that reduces government income will not be
    supported in any way whatsoever and even sabotaged whenever possible. This
    applies in Denmark too!
     
  17. MooseFET

    MooseFET Guest

    In many places, it is quicker to walk than take transit. If you need
    to carry packages etc, transit may not be an option at all.

    The sulfur is its own problem. That rotten egg smell isn't just
    umpleasant.
    Maybe not. If there is a free market in such things some countries
    nearer the tropics will have an advantage. Farmers rarely benefit
    from such things anyway. Folk like ADM get most of the benefit.

    If it takes more energy to product the biodiesel than you can get out
    of it, you certainly have a loss. Short of that you can end up
    forcing crops into land that is less suited to its growth and where
    more inputs are needed to produce the same food. The result can be
    more total energy.

    If you look at the really good farm land vs just the farm land, you
    will see that the US doesn't really have a huge amount. A lot of the
    farm land in the US requires significant inputs to produce a crop.
     
  18. It is happening right now. The dumping of USD is what is driving the boom in
    commodities and gold: Chinese and Arabs discretely lightening up on the USD
    and buying "things of value".

    The EUR is not safe a safe buy either because the ECB should have increased
    rates already and they haven't - people are betting that the ECB do not dare
    to let the Euro rise too much above the USD and will lower rates too
    possibly in June. If the ECB does the right thing by *not* cutting rates in
    June it is "all over" for the USD.
     
  19. John Larkin

    John Larkin Guest


    How long does "All over" last? This is mostly the usual market
    psychology positive feedback nonsense, stupid money following smart
    money. There's no fundamental reason for the Euro to keep climbing
    against the dollar. This is just a bit of noise and ringing in the
    system.

    As far as I'm concerned, if a bunch of Arabs and Chinese enjoy buying
    dollars when they're high, and selling them when they're low, why
    should we interfere with their fun? We had similar fun with the
    Japanese a while back, selling them buildings and golf courses for
    gigabucks a pop and buying them back later for a fraction.

    But should I raise my european pricing, and make more money now, or
    keep it the same and swipe market share, which might be better in the
    long term?

    John
     
  20. Forever - Until a new fiat currency is created, which will eventually
    implode too. Destruction through lack of confidence, fraud or oversupply of
    money is part of the natural life cycle of currencies.
    Interest rates in EUR are higher than in USD. That's pretty fundamental. The
    EUR will climb to at least the level where one gets the same returns - and
    of course the EUR will continue higher as long as Bernanke is spamming the
    world with US paper.
    Eventually even people as stupid and inbred as the Chinese central bankers
    and Arab "investors" obviously are will grow tired of that particular game
    .... and who will then be the buyer of US denominated paper? Anyone *more*
    stupid around?? Normally one runs out of stupid buyers on the end of an
    upcycle - doing it on the downswing is not so good.
    Does any of all that matter if all you happen to "produce" is rebranded
    chink stuff and the Chinese decide to cut out the American middle man and
    get paid directly to EUR? The native US manufacturers, you might be among
    them, are doing Ok but they are too few to stem the bleeding!
     
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