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Nano Limitation

Discussion in 'Electronic Basics' started by Jacky Luk, Dec 6, 2003.

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  1. Jacky Luk

    Jacky Luk Guest

    I read a local magazine today in which Paolo Gargini (someone at Intel) said
    the Moore's law would no longer be in effect after 20 years time. After that
    time, no more extra amount of transistors could be implanted into equal
    sized (which equals to today's size I bet) VLSI chips. (No technological
    advances?!)
    It would be around 16 nano meters and that would be on the maximum for
    the personnel at Intel!! Would that be a very frustrating story? Any
    comments are
    welcome!
     
  2. Baphomet

    Baphomet Guest

    I always take these ultimate pronouncements with a grain of salt. Nobody
    knows what new breakthrough technologies lie twenty years down the road,
    perhaps relegating solid state physics to the dust bin of historical arcana.

    Famous Last Words:

    "Nuclear power will be too cheap to meter"

    "The check is in the mail"

    and of course the obligatory and seemingly endless Armageddon predictions
    ;-)
     
  3. Jacky Luk

    Jacky Luk Guest

    ok... maybe still too early to say.... :)
     
  4. Neil

    Neil Guest

    Weren't these the same guys that said that Y2K would bring the entire planet
    to a standstill?....planes and satellites falling from the sky at the stroke
    of midnight?
    -Kim
     
  5. Jacky Luk

    Jacky Luk Guest

    The person being referred to was the authority of chips manufacturing at
    Intel. But I don't know what the name and his pos was.... someone probably
    really "substantial" at Intel.
     
  6. Jacky Luk

    Jacky Luk Guest

    He generally spoke about no matter what kinds of raw materials and new
    techniques were unhelpful to further minimization of the chips.... grab some
    local magazines and it should be in the headline.... Thanks
     
  7. N. Thornton

    N. Thornton Guest


    Hi Jacky. If no more technological advances are made then indeed
    progress may grind to a halt. But technoadvances have been made every
    year for many decades now.

    The technical word for the conclusion is 'bull'. Its a very popular
    technical writing style.

    Regards, NT
     
  8. Baphomet

    Baphomet Guest

    ftp://download.intel.com/research/silicon/Gordon_Moore_ISSCC_021003.pdf
     
  9. All current semiconductor mfgrs are heavily invested in
    silicon-based tech (oh, don't get all III-V on me, you know
    what I mean) because it's worked so well for so long. But
    that's really where the limits come from.

    Other technologies that are barely in the "laboratory
    curiosity" stage promise much higher density, but getting
    them to the production floor may take the full 20 years
    it'll take to take silicon to its limits. Wait and see.

    Mark L. Fergerson
     
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