life after the oil crash

[laughing rock]

Anyone seen this?

Just wondering what the homegrown energy crowd thinks of this theory.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Laughing Rock

 

[Portly Stout]

I vote for the conspirist's theory that the oil "crises" is all BS
manufactured to drive up energy prices to make a select few rich people much
much richer.

Create a crises - make drastic and costly changes - reap the benefits.
Create a new crises.

It's all fear mongering.

 

[Bob Adkins]

Anyone seen this?

Just wondering what the homegrown energy crowd thinks of this theory.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Sounds a bit like scare tactics to me, but not too far-fetched.

If the tree huggers get their way, exploration and development will be
stopped in the USA, Canada, and most of Europe, and we will be totally
dependent on oil from hostile countries. This is not a good scenario, and
will cause energy prices to skyrocket. We all know what happens to the
economy when energy prices go up!

The tree huggers are making it very expensive for the oil companies to
explore, so we don't know what current reserves truly are.

Unless China's oil consumption explodes (as I fear it will), we will have
plenty of oil in our lifetimes. In 25-30 years, coal, hydro, and nuclear
will be the ball game.

Bob

Remove "kins" from address to reply.

 

[Steve Spence]

If it happens as portrayed, (the loss of oil), then other forms of energy
will come online, that currently are cost prohibitive. biodiesel for
diesels, ethanol for gasoline engines, wind, pv, hydro and nuke for
electric. you'll see more electric cars, and mass conservation routines. all
in all, business as usual, just with a tighter belt.

--
Steve Spence
Renewable energy and sustainable living
http://www.green-trust.org
Donate $30 or more to Green Trust, and receive
a copy of Joshua Tickell's "From the Fryer to
the Fuel Tank", the premier documentary of
biodiesel and vegetable oil powered diesels.

 

[Steve Spence]

Well now, you have less knowledge than the original author, a political
science major and lawyer. At least neither of you are making energy policy.

--
Steve Spence
Renewable energy and sustainable living
http://www.green-trust.org
Donate $30 or more to Green Trust, and receive
a copy of Joshua Tickell's "From the Fryer to
the Fuel Tank", the premier documentary of
biodiesel and vegetable oil powered diesels.

 

[Portly Stout]

You're right - I don't have a PhD in "Oil Crises" to make me the recognized
expert in the field. Perhaps I will go to back-woods-U for a few years and
buy one!

Good thing I didn't do it back in 1970 as I would have egg on my face right
now.

 

[laughing rock]

Thanks for the opinions.
There's a nice range of views too. Anywhere from "the author knows nothing",
to "fear mongering" to what I thought was the voice of reason:

"Personally I think it'll likely be somewhere in between. It won't be a
crash but it also won't be a smooth landing either".

If you do a Google search for Peak Oil it turns up over a million results.
There are articles by oil companies, colleges, kooks, (even a few porn links
that got mixed in somehow) and one, by a high school girl doing a report on
the subject. In her innocence she had a lot to say about the attitude of (at
least some of ) the United States. She lists statistics, such as the world
wide volume of available oil, the current US consumption rate, then divides
supply by demand and deduces there is plenty of oil.
Never mind the rest of the world.

The truth is there is a finite amount of oil. Some day we will be unable to
depend on it for an energy resource, and there will be economic
consequences. I hope it doesn't happen in my life time, it's a sure bet it
will happen in my children's lifetime.

Thanks again for the input.

Laughing Rock

 

[Bob Adkins]

Oil reserves have been exaggerated. OPEC exports are based on reserve
estimates. Each country is thus in competition for a larger share of
the pie. The USGS has taken these exaggerations at face value and
spread them as gospel truth. Reserve estimates don't take into
consideration the well understood pattern of diminishing returns from
wells that are past peak. As a well or region or world moves past

Matt,

Are you saying that OPEC exporters *overstate their reserves?

That doesn't sound right at all. I don't see how *overstating their reserves
would not fetch the best prices. Understating them would more likely help
keep prices up.

Think about it. Say you were an OPEC oil minister and exporting the maximum
share allowed by OPEC. Now suppose you found another significant field in
your country. Would you advertise it, or keep the information close to the
vest?

No, really, it's an honest question.

Bob

Remove "kins" from address to reply.

 

[Mike Wilcox]

I've just returned from a vacation in Costa Rica and I have that impression
that people just get around anything in order to live and stay happy. I
travelled on diesel busses ($4 to go 100km.) it seemed that everyone was
happy to travel up and down major mountains to visit friends and relatives.
Local produce was abundant at every street-corner, people always seemed
strong and friendly. I can't see them suffering too much from an
oil-shortage, but then there's the question of fuel for fishing-boats and
trucks to deliver to the markets but there is much vegetable oil available
from palms and coconuts. It's obvious that the economy is buoyed by rich
north americans but I would hope that they wouldn't bid up the price of
cooking oil to fuel their diesel SUV's. The die-off of 90% sounds like
Republican wishful thinking to me, it will be more like curtailment of
consumption by steps and lowered expectations for all, even oil corporation
shareholders, but life (as we know it) will not come to an end.

I came to the same conclusion myself after watching a documentary about some
desert nomads that have been travelling the same route for hundreds of years. A
great
deal of the world will not be bothered at all, only the first world with all of
our toys ;~))

 

[Pike]

I've just returned from a vacation in Costa Rica and I have that impression
that people just get around anything in order to live and stay happy. I
travelled on diesel busses ($4 to go 100km.) it seemed that everyone was
happy to travel up and down major mountains to visit friends and relatives.
Local produce was abundant at every street-corner, people always seemed
strong and friendly. I can't see them suffering too much from an
oil-shortage, but then there's the question of fuel for fishing-boats and
trucks to deliver to the markets but there is much vegetable oil available
from palms and coconuts. It's obvious that the economy is buoyed by rich
north americans but I would hope that they wouldn't bid up the price of
cooking oil to fuel their diesel SUV's. The die-off of 90% sounds like
Republican wishful thinking to me, it will be more like curtailment of
consumption by steps and lowered expectations for all, even oil corporation
shareholders, but life (as we know it) will not come to an end.

 

[Bob Adkins]

Humans are SO adaptable!!!

Really...

Say, could I talk you into setting my VCR clock?


Bob

Remove "kins" from address to reply.

 

[Mike Wilcox]

"Mike Wilcox" wrote
: Pike wrote:
:
: > I've just returned from a vacation in Costa Rica and I have
that impression
: > that people just get around anything in order to live and stay
happy. I
: > traveled on diesel busses ($4 to go 100km.) it seemed that
everyone was
: > happy to travel up and down major mountains to visit friends
and relatives.
: > Local produce was abundant at every street-corner, people
always seemed
: > strong and friendly. I can't see them suffering too much from
an
: > oil-shortage, but then there's the question of fuel for
fishing-boats and
: > trucks to deliver to the markets but there is much vegetable
oil available
: > from palms and coconuts. It's obvious that the economy is
buoyed by rich
: > north Americans but I would hope that they wouldn't bid up
the price of
: > cooking oil to fuel their diesel SUV's. The die-off of 90%
sounds like
: > Republican wishful thinking to me, it will be more like
curtailment of
: > consumption by steps and lowered expectations for all, even
oil corporation
: > shareholders, but life (as we know it) will not come to an
end.
:
: I came to the same conclusion myself after watching a
documentary about some
: desert nomads that have been traveling the same route for
hundreds of years. A
: great
: deal of the world will not be bothered at all, only the first
world with all of
: our toys ;~))

And we will just switch to Alcohol as fuel with little more than
slight inconvenience, and farmers will be the new fuel barons!
Humans are SO adaptable!!!

Not possible in the USA, ther eis not enough arable land to support
even current levels of fuel consumption. We would have to develop a
more 'third world' way of life ;~))

 

[laughing rock]

----- Original Message -----
From: "Roger Gt" <[email protected]>
Newsgroups: alt.energy.homepower
Sent: Friday, February 20, 2004 8:17 PM
Subject: Re: life after the oil crash


.. A

: great
: deal of the world will not be bothered at all, only the first
world with all of
: our toys ;~))

And we will just switch to Alcohol as fuel with little more than
slight inconvenience, and farmers will be the new fuel barons!
Humans are SO adaptable!!!

From:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/PageTwo.html

In an article entitled The Post Petroleum Paradigm, retired Professor of
Geology at the University of Oregon, Dr. Walter Youngquist addresses the
severe limitations of biomass and ethanol. The following is an excerpt from
that article:



Oil derived from plants is sometimes promoted as a fuel source to replace
petroleum.



The facts and experience with ethanol are an example. Ethanol is a
plant-derived alcohol (usually from corn) which is used today, chiefly in
the form of gasohol, a mixture of 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline. Because it
is used to some extent,it is commonly thought that ethanol is a partially
acceptable solution to the fuel problem for machines.



However, ethanol is an energy negative - it takes more energy to produce it
than is obtained from ethanol.



Ethanol production is wasteful of fossil energy resources. About 71% more
energy is used to produce a gallon of ethanol than the energy contained in a
gallon of ethanol.



Ethanol production survives by the grace of a subsidy by the U.S. government
from taxpayer dollars. Continuing the production of ethanol is purely a
device for buying the Midwest U.S. farm vote, and may also be related to the
fact that the company which makes 60% of U.S. ethanol is also one of the
largest contributors of campaign money to the Congress - a distressing
example of politics overriding logic.


Laughing Rock

 

[Steve Spence]

Not true. There are many methods of creating food and fuel from the same
crops to supply all our transportation fuels through agriculture.


--
Steve Spence
Renewable energy and sustainable living
http://www.green-trust.org
Donate $30 or more to Green Trust, and receive
a copy of Joshua Tickell's "From the Fryer to
the Fuel Tank", the premier documentary of
biodiesel and vegetable oil powered diesels.

 

[Steve Spence]

We are already using plant oils in our diesels.

Ethanol does not take more energy to produce than it provides. It can, if
done badly, and at government subsidy, but those of us not on the government
teat have learned to do it at a profit. We get 2x the energy back that we
put in for ethanol, and 3.5x for vegetable oil. We have also obtained both
ethanol and vegetable oil from the same crop, as well as animal feed as a
byproduct.



--
Steve Spence
Renewable energy and sustainable living
http://www.green-trust.org
Donate $30 or more to Green Trust, and receive
a copy of Joshua Tickell's "From the Fryer to
the Fuel Tank", the premier documentary of
biodiesel and vegetable oil powered diesels.

 

[Steve Spence]

Good for you Roger. We have made ethanol for $1.35 a gallon from seed corn.
We also press the veggie oil for biodiesel from the same corn.



--
Steve Spence
Renewable energy and sustainable living
http://www.green-trust.org
Donate $30 or more to Green Trust, and receive
a copy of Joshua Tickell's "From the Fryer to
the Fuel Tank", the premier documentary of
biodiesel and vegetable oil powered diesels.

 

[Gordon Reeder]

I've just returned from a vacation in Costa Rica
I can't see
them suffering too much from an oil-shortage, but then there's the
question of fuel for fishing-boats and trucks to deliver to the
markets

Sail boats and horse drawn waggons??

 

[Bob Peterson]

Good for you Roger. We have made ethanol for $1.35 a gallon from seed

corn.

so on a taxable basis its only 60 or 70 cents more expesnive than diesel
made from petroleum?

as for ethanol, i agree with the comments about why its being done, its
strictly a payoff for politcal campaign cash to a couple of companies that
make a lot of money off us subsidies for ethanol.

I am not so sure if it will ever be economically competitive with gasoline.
its very difficult to get real numbers, sicne it is such a highly charged
area, but it does not appear possible to make ethanol from grain and ever be
competitive with gasoline from oil due to the high amount of energy required
to grow the grain, convert it to ethanol, and then refine it to something
usable.

 

[John Hall]

... it does not appear possible to make ethanol from grain and ever be
competitive with gasoline from oil due to the high amount of energy required
to grow the grain, convert it to ethanol, and then refine it to something
usable.

Some while ago I read of a project in eastern Canada which was
planning to make ethanol from forest-product waste (branches, roots,
bark etc) via fermentation and distillation. I have not heard anything
about progress. Also, there may be concerns that absolutely nothing is
being returned to the land to support future growth, apart from the
CO2 when the ethanol is burned.

Here's a link to another similar project:
http://www.forestnet.com/archives/May_98/waste.html

 

[Steve Spence]

Like the 1 OP (oxpower) truck found at http://webconx.green-trust.org/2000/
?


--
Steve Spence
Renewable energy and sustainable living
http://www.green-trust.org
Donate $30 or more to Green Trust, and receive
a copy of Joshua Tickell's "From the Fryer to
the Fuel Tank", the premier documentary of
biodiesel and vegetable oil powered diesels.