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Help with electric car idea

M

mike

Jan 1, 1970
0
I have an idea for an electric car that although is not new, I simply
have not seen anyone go in this direction. Since I am only a hobbyist
type of engineer, I and embarrassed to ask if perhaps I am barking up a
wrong tree. Please bear with my ignorance as I ask a few simple
questions and give you a brief description of my ideas.

I do not like the current crop of hybrid cars. although the technology
is better than nothing at all it is only a minor benefit over none at
all, and frankly almost all the hybrid cars would be better off as a
efficient 4 cyl car, without any electrics.

I think they (the car manufs) have it all backwards. I envision an all
electric driven wheel car, with a small 200-400 CC engine running on any
type of fossil fuel (Diesel propane, natural gas, and or petroleum).
this is a small unit designed to run at the most efficient speed (2500
RPM). It runs all the time it is needed to charge the batteries and
also runs the Air conditioner, and any other "power" accessories that
might be needed.

The batteries would be of efficient lithium ion type (probably 1-2
thousand of them). they could be arranged into any needed voltage
levels. As well as the battery power and the electric engine (Could be
dc or AC brushless) there would also be a shared shaft DC engine with
completely different winding sharing the same shaft as the primary
windings. what this secondary winding would do (Either AC or DC) would
be to kick in when a large boost in power (initial acceleration and or
passing at hwy speeds) is needed. I would like to ask if there is any
large capacity capacitors that could be used to store energy and allow
for a dump of 3-7 seconds of boost. Are capacitors available that are
small. lightweight, and of sufficient size that they could be used in a
gang style connection?

The little 200-400 CC engine could be run all the time or only when the
caps are not full. The little engine would first fill the caps, then
maintain the caps charge. After that the engine would charge the Li ion
cells. It is also able to take a charge from the AC wall outlet, so
that during the night your car would be fully charged. The little engine
in the back could be used to charge when an AC wall outlet is not
available and of course during the operation of the car to recharge the
caps. What I really want is a minimum 20 HP equivalent from the main Li
Ion batteries, and a 50 hp boost as the caps dump to the booster winding.

Does any of this make any sense? I do not know if I am describing it
properly, and I beg your indulgence re my lack of formal engineering...
But I am reasonably capable of machine shop use, and I have a couple
of "well off" friends who might be interested in funding a prototype.
Whet I do not know is if such capacitors exist in the size and weight I
might need.

Any ideas, would be appreciated...

If you could.... A CC to my email address of [email protected] would be
appreciated....

Thanks in Advance.
 
S

SQLit

Jan 1, 1970
0
mike said:
I have an idea for an electric car that although is not new, I simply
have not seen anyone go in this direction. Since I am only a hobbyist
type of engineer, I and embarrassed to ask if perhaps I am barking up a
wrong tree. Please bear with my ignorance as I ask a few simple
questions and give you a brief description of my ideas.

I do not like the current crop of hybrid cars. although the technology
is better than nothing at all it is only a minor benefit over none at
all, and frankly almost all the hybrid cars would be better off as a
efficient 4 cyl car, without any electrics.

I think they (the car manufs) have it all backwards. I envision an all
electric driven wheel car, with a small 200-400 CC engine running on any
type of fossil fuel (Diesel propane, natural gas, and or petroleum).
this is a small unit designed to run at the most efficient speed (2500
RPM). It runs all the time it is needed to charge the batteries and
also runs the Air conditioner, and any other "power" accessories that
might be needed.

The batteries would be of efficient lithium ion type (probably 1-2
thousand of them). they could be arranged into any needed voltage
levels. As well as the battery power and the electric engine (Could be
dc or AC brushless) there would also be a shared shaft DC engine with
completely different winding sharing the same shaft as the primary
windings. what this secondary winding would do (Either AC or DC) would
be to kick in when a large boost in power (initial acceleration and or
passing at hwy speeds) is needed. I would like to ask if there is any
large capacity capacitors that could be used to store energy and allow
for a dump of 3-7 seconds of boost. Are capacitors available that are
small. lightweight, and of sufficient size that they could be used in a
gang style connection?

The little 200-400 CC engine could be run all the time or only when the
caps are not full. The little engine would first fill the caps, then
maintain the caps charge. After that the engine would charge the Li ion
cells. It is also able to take a charge from the AC wall outlet, so
that during the night your car would be fully charged. The little engine
in the back could be used to charge when an AC wall outlet is not
available and of course during the operation of the car to recharge the
caps. What I really want is a minimum 20 HP equivalent from the main Li
Ion batteries, and a 50 hp boost as the caps dump to the booster winding.

Does any of this make any sense? I do not know if I am describing it
properly, and I beg your indulgence re my lack of formal engineering...
But I am reasonably capable of machine shop use, and I have a couple
of "well off" friends who might be interested in funding a prototype.
Whet I do not know is if such capacitors exist in the size and weight I
might need.

Any ideas, would be appreciated...

If you could.... A CC to my email address of [email protected] would be
appreciated....

Thanks in Advance.

As for your battery choice.
http://www.batteryuniversity.com/parttwo-34.htm

Seems the lithium batteries do not like it warm. Nor cycled very often.
That leaves out a lot of the densely populated areas of the south and west
for sales.
Lets see each cell weights ~2 ounces times a thousand equals about 125
pounds. Probably not enough power there to go to the corner. It runs in
my mind that the GM EV batteries weighed about 2000 pounds. Your concept is
a long way from 20 horse power.
I personally have seen my share of capacitors go nuclear in industrial
settings. I would not choose to get into a vehicle with them as part of the
power circuit. Wonder what would happen in an accident greater than a fender
bender. The utilities use caps for power factor correction. They are beefy
and make one hell of a bang when the grenade.

Sorry to be the doubting Thomas, but I think your idea is full of holes. To
many holes to be salvaged. Do you have any voc tec schools near? Check with
them and see if they have an electric program. Go volunteer for awhile. Then
maybe you will have a flash that can be called genius. That's what I did.
Sure awakened me up. I even volunteer for the universities solar racer once
in awhile. That baby cooks, 80 mph for 20 miles. Does not meet DOT specs
and can not be driven at night. There are no headlamps. Donated parts are
now approaching 6 million bucks.
 
I have an idea for an electric car that although is not new, I simply
have not seen anyone go in this direction. Since I am only a hobbyist
type of engineer, I and embarrassed to ask if perhaps I am barking up a
wrong tree. Please bear with my ignorance as I ask a few simple
questions and give you a brief description of my ideas.

I do not like the current crop of hybrid cars. although the technology
is better than nothing at all it is only a minor benefit over none at
all, and frankly almost all the hybrid cars would be better off as a
efficient 4 cyl car, without any electrics.

I think they (the car manufs) have it all backwards. I envision an all
electric driven wheel car, with a small 200-400 CC engine running on any
type of fossil fuel (Diesel propane, natural gas, and or petroleum).
this is a small unit designed to run at the most efficient speed (2500
RPM). It runs all the time it is needed to charge the batteries and
also runs the Air conditioner, and any other "power" accessories that
might be needed.

The batteries would be of efficient lithium ion type (probably 1-2
thousand of them). they could be arranged into any needed voltage
levels. As well as the battery power and the electric engine (Could be
dc or AC brushless) there would also be a shared shaft DC engine with
completely different winding sharing the same shaft as the primary
windings. what this secondary winding would do (Either AC or DC) would
be to kick in when a large boost in power (initial acceleration and or
passing at hwy speeds) is needed. I would like to ask if there is any
large capacity capacitors that could be used to store energy and allow
for a dump of 3-7 seconds of boost. Are capacitors available that are
small. lightweight, and of sufficient size that they could be used in a
gang style connection?

The little 200-400 CC engine could be run all the time or only when the
caps are not full. The little engine would first fill the caps, then
maintain the caps charge. After that the engine would charge the Li ion
cells. It is also able to take a charge from the AC wall outlet, so
that during the night your car would be fully charged. The little engine
in the back could be used to charge when an AC wall outlet is not
available and of course during the operation of the car to recharge the
caps. What I really want is a minimum 20 HP equivalent from the main Li
Ion batteries, and a 50 hp boost as the caps dump to the booster winding.

Does any of this make any sense? I do not know if I am describing it
properly, and I beg your indulgence re my lack of formal engineering...
But I am reasonably capable of machine shop use, and I have a couple
of "well off" friends who might be interested in funding a prototype.
Whet I do not know is if such capacitors exist in the size and weight I
might need.

Any ideas, would be appreciated...

If you could.... A CC to my email address of [email protected] would be
appreciated....

Thanks in Advance.


You are still describing a hybrid. The first hybrids were better than
the current ones since they had smaller engines. The problem is
Americans still want performance and that requires energy. You still
can't get something for nothing.
Basically a hybrid only tends to level out the energy demand. If this
is stop and go driving, without too much drag racing there is a big
saving to be had but if you keep your foot in it, you are burning
energy and thay has tro come from somewhere.
At interstate speeds that saving, starts to fall off.
 
N

night dalits

Jan 1, 1970
0
mike said:
Any ideas, would be appreciated...

If you could.... A CC to my email address of [email protected] would be
appreciated....

Thanks in Advance.

That type of car is in design for the last 10 years. One issue was a
electric motor on each tire, or one central one.

Google it.
 
B

Bob

Jan 1, 1970
0
Please correct my arithmetic, anyone - it is a lovely sunny
morning and I am just waking up...


Storing enough energy to provide 50hp for 7 seconds? Call it
50kW and you have 350 kilojoules. With capacitors at around
350joules/kg, your capacitors are going to weigh 1000 kg.
They are going to be a tad large too..

Not my field and the figures above are just ones plucked
from Google. Others more experienced in this area might like
to correct me.

One thing I do have experience of is injuries caused by
capacitor failure. Very messy. If all those joules let go in
a fraction of a second, it could be quite "interesting".

Personally, I have this idea about tamper-proof cartridge
battery packs. You drive your electric car into a "filling
station". The pack is slid out and a value given, depending
on what a sexy little processor built into the pack says its
life story has been. A replacement, charged, one is slid in
and you pay the difference. You can even have a dashboard
display showing current (hic) value and well as current
(hic) capacity..

You could even choose how much you wanted to pay - by
choosing the replacement pack. If you were skint, you could
even swop your nearly-new but depleted pack for a very old
but charged one - and get money back.. Plus keep a spare in
the garage and/or tow a spare for extra range..

The filling station would, for a fee, be recharging the
pack(s) using power utility power.

It must have been thought of..

Warning! Rant ahead!
Move on if you don't have the time!

There is a basic problem with all of these ideas. Convenience. We want
to be able to get in our vehicles, drive to where we want to go, and
get out after we park it. Occasionally we will put up with stopping to
refuel, but many studies have shown that if it is any less than every
250-300 miles or so, people consider that a nuisance. That is why you
see 25+ gallon fuel tanks on monster SUVs that get 10MPG. Those people
don't care about economy, they just don't want to stop at the gas
station every 2 days to refill. ELECTRIC VEHICLES CURRENTLY AVAILABLE
THAT NEED TO BE PLUGGED IN FOR RECHARGE AT THE END OF EVERY TRIP HAVE
NEVER TAKEN OFF BECAUSE OF THIS. Even the "power pack" idea is
impractical. If I had to stop and swap out power packs every 2 days, I
would trash that thing in under a month!

Hybid cars are not just about recharging the batteries in as much as
providing a usefull range. The big problem with electric powered
vehicles has always been range. You can go 70, maybe 100 miles
betwween recharges, but then the recharge process takes too long to be
usefull for most commuters. Internal combustion engines are actually
quite good at converting chemical energy to motion at a constant rate,
but are extrememly inefficient for acceleration torque and idling,
making them wasteful for stop-and-go traffic. The hybrid is a way of
supplementing the lack of range of the electric motor by having the
gas engine take over for the long hauls when they can operate at peak
eficiency. The electric motors provide better acceleration efficiency
and can allow the entire system to shut down when not moving at all.

Having the internal combustion engine idle continuously and soley to
keep recharging batteries is just increasing the wastefulness. You
lose 25-30% of the available stored chemical energy in the conversion
process alone. In addition, 400cc's of I.C.E. will net you about 5kW
(6.7HP) of generated electric power under the best of conditions. If
you are running even just 20HP of electric motor, you are using energy
at a rate of 3x the recharge rate. How long do you think you can run
that motor before you deplete your stored energy capacity? The only
way it could possibly work would be to allow the I.C.E. generator to
run even when you were not using the vehicle. So what have you saved?

Electric motors are really good at only using power as it is required,
so the whole capacitor thing is pointless anyway. Put a 50HP motor on
it if you feel it needs 50HP for acceleration, but when it needs only
20HP to maintain speed, it will only draw power related to that 20HP
load requirement. The only problem with electric motors is that the
power it consumes must be carried with it in some form. The batteries
to carry around enough chemical energy storage for a 250 mile trip
still weigh too much. Trust me, there are a LOT of people working on
this issue all the time, and it is not easy to significantly change
the formula. Hydrogen has promise for the future, but the storage
issue is still a big hurdle there as well. Solar is quasi-"free", but
too slow to be practical for transportation. Capacitors can store a
lot of energy in terms of voltage, but not a lot of net power since
they will dissipate that voltage relatively quickly. As a point of
reference, a capacitor bank for a 20HP VFD can hold up the electric
motor for about 1 cycle, or 16.7 milliseconds when the line power is
turned off, and weighs approximately 1 pound total. So if you
extrapolate to your wanting to run the motor for only 7 seconds, it
would likely weigh 400+ pounds, and what good is 7 seconds going to do
for you? You still need batteries. Then the energy to recharge that
capacitor bank is going to be robbed from the charging cycle of the
batteries, furthering your energy deficit from the little 400cc I.C.E.
generator.

Conclusion: In the world of portable power sources, an I.C.E has yet
to be bested. I do think that the I.C.E. component of the currently
available hybrid vehicles could probably be improved by being diesel,
but here in the US we have a lot of environmental concerns associated
with small diesel engines so it may not be practical at this time. I
bought a Prius in 2001. I think it is one of the finest examples of
engineering compromise in human history. I don't get the advertised
50+ MPG, but I do average 44 MPG fairly consistantly, and coupled with
an 11.9 gallon tank, I can go a little over 500 miles between
fill-ups. I doubt anyone can beat that with an all electric vehicle.


Rant complete. Time to go back to work.
 
D

daestrom

Jan 1, 1970
0
Bob said:
On Sun, 07 Aug 2005 11:00:06 +0100, Palindr?me


Warning! Rant ahead!
Move on if you don't have the time!

There is a basic problem with all of these ideas. Convenience. We want
to be able to get in our vehicles, drive to where we want to go, and
get out after we park it. Occasionally we will put up with stopping to
refuel, but many studies have shown that if it is any less than every
250-300 miles or so, people consider that a nuisance. That is why you
see 25+ gallon fuel tanks on monster SUVs that get 10MPG. Those people
don't care about economy, they just don't want to stop at the gas
station every 2 days to refill. ELECTRIC VEHICLES CURRENTLY AVAILABLE
THAT NEED TO BE PLUGGED IN FOR RECHARGE AT THE END OF EVERY TRIP HAVE
NEVER TAKEN OFF BECAUSE OF THIS. Even the "power pack" idea is
impractical. If I had to stop and swap out power packs every 2 days, I
would trash that thing in under a month!

Well, I have a different look at it. Yes, finding a place to 'plug in' in
every parking lot is a problem for sure. But another one is "Why should I
have to have two different kinds of cars?"

For the daily commute, an EV would work for a lot of folks. Just park at
work and plug-in when you get home at night. So the only charger socket one
needs is in the garage.

But for long-distance trips, even if every filling station on the interstate
had a 'socket', who wants to sit around for four to six hours after driving
for just two?? So, one needs a *different* car for visiting grandma's house
on Thanksgiving, or spending the weekend at the beach?

Two different cars, different mechanics, maintenance schedules, parking
spaces.... Easier to just have one car that does it all. Or if a family
has to have two cars, it's still easier to have two with the same
technology.

daestrom
 
M

Mike Lamond

Jan 1, 1970
0
Palindr☻me said:
The snipped bit was suggesting that the complete power pack be swapped at
"filling stations". It could be as simple as driving over an "X" and a
fairly simple mechanism could pull out the existing pack and shove in a
replacement - almost certainly in far, far less time than it takes to
refuel a conventional vehicle.

You may have to swap packs more often than you fill a tank - but the total
time could easily be comparable.

Certainly you could also have recharge facilities at home and elsewhere
(ISTR power outlets on parking meters, for plugging the sump heater into,
in Canada, in Winter - do they still exist? We have never had them in the
UK).

The "filling station" could be of radically different design and easily
combined with other things - eg a combined drive thru fast food/ATM/etc
and "filling station".

Of course, it would help if all vehicles took a "standard" battery pack
and had a common exchange port design.
The power pack swap scheme was illustrated on the cover of Popular
Science sometime in the late 1960's - early 1970's. As I remember it,
the artist's concept showing the grid assembly being lifted out for
exchange while the old electrolyte was pumped out so that fresh fluid
could be pumped in. That sounds like some 1920's auto battery repair
manuals I've seen.

An updated version of battery swapping could merge two business
models that exist now, at least in the U.S.: "15 minute oil change"
type shops and the propane tank exchange that can be found mostly
at convenience stores. The drawback is that aging battery packs
aren't as easily refreshed as propane tanks. Maybe the pack could
have its own meter showing available kWh, and you would pay for
the available energy in the fresh pack while receiving some credit
for the remaining charge in the used pack.

Mike
 
B

Bob

Jan 1, 1970
0
Well, I have a different look at it. Yes, finding a place to 'plug in' in
every parking lot is a problem for sure. But another one is "Why should I
have to have two different kinds of cars?"

For the daily commute, an EV would work for a lot of folks. Just park at
work and plug-in when you get home at night. So the only charger socket one
needs is in the garage.

But for long-distance trips, even if every filling station on the interstate
had a 'socket', who wants to sit around for four to six hours after driving
for just two?? So, one needs a *different* car for visiting grandma's house
on Thanksgiving, or spending the weekend at the beach?

Two different cars, different mechanics, maintenance schedules, parking
spaces.... Easier to just have one car that does it all. Or if a family
has to have two cars, it's still easier to have two with the same
technology.

daestrom
Good point, I like your logic. But to address your "charging station"
issue for commuter cars, I had an all-electric car for a while. I
commuted to a rapid transit system station in the SF Bay Area
(B.A.R.T.), and they provide a free plug station at the parking lot
for EVs. It was great when there were only 5 of us EV users using the
6 plug stations, but one day I arrived to find them all filled, and
when I got back to the station that night, I didn't have enough charge
to get home. In other words, the logistics of even having an EV
strictly for commuting are very problematic.
 
B

Bob

Jan 1, 1970
0
The credit concept was something I had in the snipped bit -
but a bit more sophisticated than simply a meter showing
available kWh. I had in mind a tamperproof microprocessor
system that would store the life history of the pack. So its
age, number and depth of discharge cycles, number of swaps,
even previous vehicle types etc would all be available it to
produce a commercial value for the battery pack - which
would be the credit off the replacement unit (which may
actually have a lower value, if it is an old pack replacing
nearly-new). So, when you drive up, instead of choosing how
much fuel you want, you choose the value of the replacement
unit, from those that are in stock at the time..


OK, instead of focusing on the relatively minor issue of technology
involved in tracking battery life (and I doubt that it is in any way
minor), lets look at some quick internet data on the logistics just
for the US (since that is where I live and have information
available).

As of Y2000, there were 195,455 stations where gasoline can be
purchased. http://sbdcnet.utsa.edu/industry/gas_stations.pdf For
simplicities sake, lets assume there were 204,000 by 2003.

Also in the year 2003, there were 204,000,000 gasoline powered
household vehicles in use in the US, the ones that would be eligible
for conversion to EV technology.
http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2001/MarinaStasenko.shtml

That means each service station must be capable of handling an average
of 1,000 vehicles (assuming even distribution of course).

The average number of miles driven in 1998 was 11,725 per year. (same
NPN report as above). Again, for simplicity, lets even assume we can
all cut back to 10,000 miles per year (LMAO).

1,000 vehicles x 10,000 miles/yr = 10 million miles driven by
customers for each available service station.

If you can get, lets say, 100 miles out of a battery pack (and that
would be a stretch), that means each service station must be capable
of changing out 10,000,000 / 100 = 100,000 battery packs per year!

Assume we can miraculously design a machine that can change out a set
of battery packs in 5 minutes, including the time it takes for each
driver to line up on the "X" (again, LMAO). Another side-splitter:
getting the industry to standardize on battery packs being universally
interchangeable! ROFLMAO!

Let's now also assume that a service station can afford to install 4
of these machines (big ASSumption), and that each service station runs
12hrs/day (720 minutes). 4 machines, x 720 mn/day continuously = 2880
changeout minutes capacity. At 5 minutes per customer = 2880/5 = 576
customers per day if they are all lined up ready to be charged. 576 x
365 days = 210,240 customers per year capacity versus the 100,000
minimum capacity, so that part is doable when you consider the real
logistics of how people would refuel.

If each machine cost only $50,000 installed (LMAO again), x 4 machines
per station, each station would need to invest $100,000 in the
machines alone. Theoretically doable again, but to make it work, the
service stations would need to cough it up PRIOR to everyone switching
to EVs, but lets move on from that side track.

So as a whole industry, 204,000 stations buying $100,000 worth of
machines makes this an $20.4 billion dollar investment!

Now lets not forget the cost of moving and storing 100,000 battery
packs per year added to that. 100,000 battery packs / 365 days = 274
packs per day to handle assuming a steady flow. That is roughly 23 /
hour in that 12 hour day. That's a lot of weight alone, too much to
expect a person to manhandle, so assume at least 1 fork lift for each
station, Add another $20,000 investment for each station, bringing it
up to $120,000, or almost $25 billion in up-front infrastructure
investment for the service station industry. Not looking so good any
more as a big picture.

Now the batteries themselves. 100,000 battery packs need to be used at
each station per year, which as shown above is 274 packs/day in a 12
hour sales day. Assume that you only need to actually carry 1/2 of
those in stock, because you have the other 1/2 being recharged, and it
takes 1/2 of the day to recharge them (complicated logistics however).
So now the stations need to buy 137 battery packs. 137 battery packs x
204,000 stations = 28 MILLION battery packs! Assume, what,
$500/battery pack? (another laugher because the replacement batteries
for my Prius are more than that, and they don't need to run the car
full time) Now you have an overall UP-FRONT battery investment of $14
BILLION dollars! Makes the machines look relatively insignificant. I
want into the business of making battery packs!

So $25 Billion in machine installations plus 14 Billion in batteries
is now at $39 Billion in infrastrcture.

Now add to all of this the cost of everyone switching to EVs. ASSume
you can get the price of a reasonable EV down to $25,000, roughly the
cost of a Prius right now. 204,000 vehicles x $25,000 / each = another
$5.1 Billion investment as a society in EVs.

To all of this we will leave out the cost to society of disposing of
the gas vehicles, gas tanks at service stations etc. etc., as well as
the eventual cost of disposing of spent batteries.

Now consider that the US used $205 Billion worth of gasoline in 2002
http://www.euromonitor.com/Gasoline_Station_Retailing_in_United_States
but nearly 1/2 of it was used on commercial trucks, busses and
motorcycles (NPN study), and so not available as savings by switching
to EVs. With $110 Billion in annual gas sales being displaced by
making a $44 Billion investment in EV's and infrastructure, it appears
to make some sense as a society. But with getting anyone to cough up
that kind of up-front investment AND suffering the economic impact of
telling 1/2 the petrochemical industry to just go away, it is not
likely to happen.
 
A

Al

Jan 1, 1970
0
Bob said:
OK, instead of focusing on the relatively minor issue of technology
involved in tracking battery life (and I doubt that it is in any way
minor), lets look at some quick internet data on the logistics just
for the US (since that is where I live and have information
available).

As of Y2000, there were 195,455 stations where gasoline can be
purchased. http://sbdcnet.utsa.edu/industry/gas_stations.pdf For
simplicities sake, lets assume there were 204,000 by 2003.

Also in the year 2003, there were 204,000,000 gasoline powered
household vehicles in use in the US, the ones that would be eligible
for conversion to EV technology.
http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2001/MarinaStasenko.shtml

That means each service station must be capable of handling an average
of 1,000 vehicles (assuming even distribution of course).

The average number of miles driven in 1998 was 11,725 per year. (same
NPN report as above). Again, for simplicity, lets even assume we can
all cut back to 10,000 miles per year (LMAO).

1,000 vehicles x 10,000 miles/yr = 10 million miles driven by
customers for each available service station.

If you can get, lets say, 100 miles out of a battery pack (and that
would be a stretch), that means each service station must be capable
of changing out 10,000,000 / 100 = 100,000 battery packs per year!

Assume we can miraculously design a machine that can change out a set
of battery packs in 5 minutes, including the time it takes for each
driver to line up on the "X" (again, LMAO). Another side-splitter:
getting the industry to standardize on battery packs being universally
interchangeable! ROFLMAO!

Let's now also assume that a service station can afford to install 4
of these machines (big ASSumption), and that each service station runs
12hrs/day (720 minutes). 4 machines, x 720 mn/day continuously = 2880
changeout minutes capacity. At 5 minutes per customer = 2880/5 = 576
customers per day if they are all lined up ready to be charged. 576 x
365 days = 210,240 customers per year capacity versus the 100,000
minimum capacity, so that part is doable when you consider the real
logistics of how people would refuel.

If each machine cost only $50,000 installed (LMAO again), x 4 machines
per station, each station would need to invest $100,000 in the
machines alone. Theoretically doable again, but to make it work, the
service stations would need to cough it up PRIOR to everyone switching
to EVs, but lets move on from that side track.

So as a whole industry, 204,000 stations buying $100,000 worth of
machines makes this an $20.4 billion dollar investment!

Now lets not forget the cost of moving and storing 100,000 battery
packs per year added to that. 100,000 battery packs / 365 days = 274
packs per day to handle assuming a steady flow. That is roughly 23 /
hour in that 12 hour day. That's a lot of weight alone, too much to
expect a person to manhandle, so assume at least 1 fork lift for each
station, Add another $20,000 investment for each station, bringing it
up to $120,000, or almost $25 billion in up-front infrastructure
investment for the service station industry. Not looking so good any
more as a big picture.

Now the batteries themselves. 100,000 battery packs need to be used at
each station per year, which as shown above is 274 packs/day in a 12
hour sales day. Assume that you only need to actually carry 1/2 of
those in stock, because you have the other 1/2 being recharged, and it
takes 1/2 of the day to recharge them (complicated logistics however).
So now the stations need to buy 137 battery packs. 137 battery packs x
204,000 stations = 28 MILLION battery packs! Assume, what,
$500/battery pack? (another laugher because the replacement batteries
for my Prius are more than that, and they don't need to run the car
full time) Now you have an overall UP-FRONT battery investment of $14
BILLION dollars! Makes the machines look relatively insignificant. I
want into the business of making battery packs!

So $25 Billion in machine installations plus 14 Billion in batteries
is now at $39 Billion in infrastrcture.

Now add to all of this the cost of everyone switching to EVs. ASSume
you can get the price of a reasonable EV down to $25,000, roughly the
cost of a Prius right now. 204,000 vehicles x $25,000 / each = another
$5.1 Billion investment as a society in EVs.

To all of this we will leave out the cost to society of disposing of
the gas vehicles, gas tanks at service stations etc. etc., as well as
the eventual cost of disposing of spent batteries.

Now consider that the US used $205 Billion worth of gasoline in 2002
http://www.euromonitor.com/Gasoline_Station_Retailing_in_United_States
but nearly 1/2 of it was used on commercial trucks, busses and
motorcycles (NPN study), and so not available as savings by switching
to EVs. With $110 Billion in annual gas sales being displaced by
making a $44 Billion investment in EV's and infrastructure, it appears
to make some sense as a society. But with getting anyone to cough up
that kind of up-front investment AND suffering the economic impact of
telling 1/2 the petrochemical industry to just go away, it is not
likely to happen.

The same arguement could have been used when horses were replaced by
automobiles. Substitute hay and oats for gasoline, blacksmith shops for
gasoline stations, paved roads for lanes, etc. And the pollution from
the horses could be used as fertilizer not like the pollution from
autos. I could park my horse in any meadow and it could fill itself up
while I worked. And, unlike an auto, they were self-replicating.

;-)

Al
 
E

ehsjr

Jan 1, 1970
0
Al said:
The same arguement could have been used when horses were replaced by
automobiles. Substitute hay and oats for gasoline, blacksmith shops for
gasoline stations, paved roads for lanes, etc. And the pollution from
the horses could be used as fertilizer not like the pollution from
autos. I could park my horse in any meadow and it could fill itself up
while I worked. And, unlike an auto, they were self-replicating.

;-)

Al

But the analogy is erroneous. Automobiles quickly became
so vastly superior to the horse that any comparison leaving
that superiority out is flawed. In the battery vs gasoline
"debate" the two vehicles are roughly equivalent, with the
present performance superiority going to the existing technology,
not the new.

A battery powered vehicle will have to offer significant
benefits over the I.C.E., as perceived by the consumer, before
it replaces existing technology to the same degree that the
auto has replaced the horse. But it won't be in line with the
dicsussion which seems to center on relatively "overnight"
replacement. A phased in approach is more likely, and is in
fact what is happening. How far it goes remains to be seen.

Ed
 
A

Al

Jan 1, 1970
0
ehsjr <[email protected]> said:
Al wrote:


But the analogy is erroneous. Automobiles quickly became
so vastly superior to the horse that any comparison leaving
that superiority out is flawed. In the battery vs gasoline
"debate" the two vehicles are roughly equivalent, with the
present performance superiority going to the existing technology,
not the new.

A battery powered vehicle will have to offer significant
benefits over the I.C.E., as perceived by the consumer, before
it replaces existing technology to the same degree that the
auto has replaced the horse. But it won't be in line with the
dicsussion which seems to center on relatively "overnight"
replacement. A phased in approach is more likely, and is in
fact what is happening. How far it goes remains to be seen.

Ed

I'm not disagreeing with you. There are always problems with the
introduction of new technology. How do you sell pre-recorded tapes to
people who only have record players? How do you sell CDs to people who
only have tape recorders? How do you sell DVDs to people who only have
VCRs?

My feeling is that we will have to go to all electric eventually. Some
sort of battery will have to be devised that lasts the life of the
automobile. My '71 Jag still runs on gasoline 34 yrs later. What will I
do for batteries 34 yrs later with any battery car I buy? And the source
will have to be nuclear; anything else is a pipe dream. We have go get
over our collective consciousness of nuclear danger which was embedded
into up as kids in the '50s.

Al
 
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