Based on your measurements, I don't believe it's a mosfet. I also don't believe it's a BJT. So I don't know what it is.
I also disagree with your assertion regarding failure rates of capacitors.
However, if it were true, you would have a problem because most SMD capacitors (at least the small ones) have no values marked on them, and the boards typically don't have this on the silk screen either. At best they may have an ID number that you could use to refer back to the schematic (which you don't have)